Sir Frank Lantz of Area Code Inc wrote a damn interesting article on game design and the likely or unlikelihood of the probability of events occuring in games. This article is a result of several panel discussions at PAX East this year. Most notably, Lantz's focal point of the article is the topics discussed during the Rob Pardo and Sid Meier which talked about how game design should focus on adjusting to how a gamer plays as opposed to the gamer stumbling upon choke points of events.
Game Design Advance >> The Truth In Game Design